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    RMB,Appreciate or Depreciate ?
    点击率:次     发表时间:[2010-10-26 14:47]

     

    RMB,Appreciate or Depreciate ? It is reported that China has got a trade deficit in March. This is the first one since May 2004. Department of commerce has response to the media and express that RMB appreciated is not a need. But most of the econimist still think the trad deficit is a so call “ temperary phenomena”.
    Yao Jian, speaker of Department of commerce say that, the trade deficit reveal the ectual factor which influence trading balance is supply demand or other but not exchange. Department of commerce is always surpport exporting company, it stand against exchange adjust for trading balance.
    Nevertheless,on the March economic report, there is some data would need to review carefully. The tranding deficit only happened between China mainland and Taiwan, Japan, and Sourth Korea. There still trade surplus between China and USA, Europe. It happen to be USA and European Union who condemnate China has earn a lot through the connected exchange way.
        It looks that although there is trade deficit on March, the interial economic groups will not stop the criticism for China’s trading policy. Speaker of Democrat Party, Harry Reid says, that is possible that senate would vote for the proposal of faliciting RMB appreciated in May.
    The Analysist of RBC Capital Markets says, if China make the decision to adjsut RMB exchange, it must because of the domestic situation decided this will good for China’s interest. China will not make any decision only for appease the international pressure.
    China government did not adjust RMB exchange most because of political resons.USA trial to left exchange adjusting room to send signal that China is not adjusting exchange for pressure. USA treasury department annouced that it will postpone the exchange report date recently( there will express USA government standpoint did China control the exchange or not). The surprise visit of Geithner before China –USA leaders meeting also may be the signal of Chian exchange policy adjustment.
    At the same time, people did not seen any vigilant from China officer.The leader of Statistics Directorate Zheng Yue says in his telivision interview: a trading deficit like this is well-behaved as this happen under the situation of both import and export increasing repaidly. Although China has less trading surplus, seeing from a long-term, China will still be a country share trading suuplus for many years. The difference only in the surplus volume will be smaller as import is more than export.
    The analysist did not worried on this deficit.Mei Xinyu, the analysist of Commerce Department, writes in his article: the trading deficit which did not happened for a long time alarms for exchange adjusting risk. He think the trading deficit will happen often in coming monthly trading reports,it will even continue for months. As the trading deficit expose the international balance of payment dreaback, it will work against to the opinion of RMB eppreciated. He also suggest cooperation be cautious to capital and exchange reverse risk.